Long-term Outlook

In our latest Long-term Outlook, we draw upon the expertise of our investment teams and combine our macroeconomic expectations with research into key global trends and financial assets. The outcome is a coherent and time-tested outlook for financial markets.

Macroeconomic Scenarios and Expected Returns 2027-2030

At Aegon Asset Management we are part of a company with over 180 years of history in building insurance and investment businesses. Navigating almost every kind of situation, from periods of economic expansion to deep crises and everything in between. This long history and extensive experience in managing pension and insurance assets have taught us to navigate short-term fluctuations while maintaining a long-term perspective. 

 

Key points of our latest Long-term Outlook are our views on resilient global growth, the five critical tests that will determine marketdirection, and why resilience and diversification are becoming increasingly important in a world with a wider range of possible outcomes.

A constructive outlook, but with a narrower margin for error

Global growth remains resilient, supported by AI investment, strong US innovation and improving prospects for Europe. At the same time, persistent inflation, elevated government debt and geopolitical fragmentation create a more complex environment. 

Five tests will shape the investment landscape

The outlook depends on five critical tests: productivity, energy, public finances, structural reform and geopolitics. Success could support stronger growth, higher earnings and attractive asset returns, while setbacks in any of these areas could create significant market volatility and economic divergence.

 

A wider range of outcomes than investors are used to

The coming years could be shaped by either an AI-driven productivity boom and European renewal, or by geopolitical conflict, fiscal stress and inflation shocks. With both upside and downside scenarios appearing plausible, the distribution of outcomes is unusually wide, making resilience and diversification increasingly important for investors.

Find out more about our macroeconomic expectations
Spotlight: From AI Upside to Geopolitical Downside: Five Market Scenarios

The economic outlook is surrounded by unusually large structural uncertainties. Artificial intelligence could generate a meaningful acceleration in productivity, while Europe may finally translate higher investment and policy reform into stronger economic performance. At the same time, geopolitical conflict, fiscal vulnerabilities and a disorderly climate transition represent potentially significant downside risks.

Spotlight: China’s 15th FiveYear Plan: Strategic Autonomy over GDP Maximisation

As the world’s second-largest economy and a dominant force in manufacturing, China influences global growth, inflation, commodity demand, supply chains and corporate earnings. At the same time, China's export strength has increasingly become a source of concern for trading partners, as excess capacity and aggressive pricing in sectors such as electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels and industrial goods put pressure on producers elsewhere. Understanding the direction of Chinese policy is therefore not only important for assessing China’s own growth outlook, but also for judging the risks and opportunities facing global markets.

Spotlight: Europe at Crossroads

Europe remains an economic heavyweight, but intensifying global challenges have exposed deep structural weaknesses. Geopolitical tensions, energy dependence, lagging productivity, and technological underinvestment threaten Europe’s competitiveness and resilience. At the same time, institutional investors, particularly pension funds and insurers, are uniquely positioned to mobilize long-term capital in ways that strengthen Europe’s strategic autonomy while delivering sustainable returns.

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In case you have any questions about the Long-term Outlook, please don't hesitate to contact us.

Jacob Vijverberg, CFA
Asset Allocation Lead
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Jordy Hermanns, CFA
Portfolio Manager
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