Long-term Outlook

In our latest Long-term Outlook, we draw upon the expertise of our investment teams and combine our macroeconomic expectations with research into key global trends and financial assets. The outcome is a coherent and time-tested outlook for financial markets.

Macroeconomic Scenarios and Expected Returns 2026-2029

At Aegon Asset Management we are part of a company with over 180 years of history in building insurance and investment businesses. Navigating almost every kind of situation, from periods of economic expansion to deep crises and everything in between. This long history and extensive experience in managing pension and insurance assets have taught us to navigate short-term fluctuations while maintaining a long-term perspective. 

 

Key points of our latest Long-term Outlook are our views on growth, geopolitical fragmentation, artificial intelligence (AI) and other global trends:

Global growth faces structural headwinds

Geopolitical fragmentation and demographic shifts are weighing on long-term growth prospects. Fiscal stimulus offers some support, but challenges around policy uncertainty and rising deficits are testing resilience in the US and Europe.

Markets remain resilient, but risks are rising

Equities and credit markets have held up well. Yet concentration risks in tech and potential shifts in AI sentiment could introduce volatility, making diversification more important than ever. Asset classes such as alternative fixed income and real estate are well positioned to deliver solid returns while offering lower exposure to cyclical volatility.

 

Artificial intelligence is a wildcard

Artificial intelligence investment surges, but productivity impact remains uncertain. AI continues to attract massive investment and market optimism. However, the extent to which it will translate into meaningful productivity gains is still unclear, making it a wildcard in the long-term outlook.

Find out more about our macroeconomic expectations
Spotlight: The rise of Private Debt in a changing market

The private debt market is experiencing strong momentum, with double-digit growth expected over the next four years. This expansion is driven by the search for yield, improved borrowing conditions, and increasing demand for diversification.

Despite a slowdown in deal activity between 2021 and 2023 due to rising interest rates, private debt is rebounding. Investors are drawn to its liquidity premium, solid credit quality, and growing relevance in impact investing, especially across Europe.

Spotlight: Global Equities show strength, but risks are rising

Global equity markets have delivered strong returns in recent years, with the MSCI World Index posting double-digit gains in five of the last six years. Much of this performance is driven by the fast-growing U.S. tech sector, which has helped developed markets outperform emerging ones.

However, currency effects are starting to impact returns. While U.S. dollar-based investors continue to benefit, unhedged returns in other currencies, such as the euro, are more muted due to dollar weakness.

Spotlight: Impact of Climate

Climate change has been a known phenomenon for many years. Climate change can have major implications for the global environment and economy. The need and urgency to transition away from fossil fuels and carbon-intensive production and consumption towards zero-emission alternatives across the globe becomes more apparent every year, as global weather conditions and physical events break new records.

Explore more insights on long-term investing

Looking for more expert perspectives beyond our Long-term Outlook? Discover in-depth articles on macro trends, private markets and sustainable investing, designed to help institutional investors navigate complexity with confidence.

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In case you have any questions about the Long-term Outlook, please don't hesitate to contact us.

Jacob Vijverberg, CFA
Head of Asset Allocation
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Jordy Hermanns, CFA
Portfolio Manager
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