US CRE Market Insights: June 2026

Executive summary

 

  • The Federal Reserve appears to be currently in a “hold and assess” mode.1
    Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), excluding food and energy, increased 0.2% on a month-over-month basis in April, while headline PCE rose 3.8% year over year.
  • On a year-over-year basis, property transaction volume climbed at a double-digit pace in the first quarter.4
  • MSCI’s RCA CPPI US National All-Property Index showed prices rose at a 2.1% annual rate in the first quarter.5
  • In our view, the lending environment was balanced and highly competitive in the first quarter, with all lender types posting increases and total mortgage originations up 52% on a year-over-year basis.3 Core spreads remain in the 130 to 170 basis point (bps) range, although a stable of lenders will quote spreads in the low or even sub-100s with rate buydowns.
  • The trailing 1-year return for the NCREIF National Property Index (NPI), a measure of unleveraged returns, was 4.9% in the first quarter compared to 2.8% a year earlier. Capital appreciation was reported as 0.2%, with income return at 4.7%6 

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1Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. May 22, 2026
2Wolters Kluwer. Blue Chip Economic Indicators. May 8, 2026
3US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal Income and Outlays. May 2026
4MSCI Real Capital Analytics. Volume and Pricing. May 2026
5MSCI Real Capital Analytics. RCA CPPI. May 2026
6National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries. May 2026

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