US commercial real estate 2026 outlook

Executive summary

 

  • We expect slower but stable economic growth to define 2026, with GDP trending at a 1.5% to 2.0% pace and inflation easing but remaining slightly above the Fed’s target
  • Lower expected Treasury yields and compressed spreads will likely benefit borrowers, with refinancing activity remaining steady and acquisition activity continuing to grow  
  • We expect the industrial and multifamily sectors to remain at the forefront of investor demand in 2026, despite supply pressures in certain markets. Retail should remain steady amid limited new supply; necessity-driven formats outperform
  • Increased commercial mortgage loan (CML) demand across the lender spectrum and among investors seeking private credit exposure should lead to consistent liquidity as the market navigates $930 billion in maturing loans
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