Pelé Index Update: The Beautiful Game, the Ugly Returns
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Article Type
Insights
Topic
Opinion
Published
June 03, 2026
Read time
10 mins
Authors
Jordy Hermanns, CFA
Jacob Vijverberg, CFA
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Since 1998, global equities have returned +678%. Publicly listed football clubs? -11%. Welcome to the beautiful game — where the only thing more painful than your team losing on Saturday is checking your portfolio on Monday.

  • We conduct in-depth and serious research about macroeconomics, financial markets and asset allocation.
  • Occasionally, we also like to explore lighter topics. In 2024 we took a deep dive into a specific niche of financial markets: publicly listed football stocks and we introduced the Pelé Index.
  • Named after the legendary footballer Pelé, the Pelé Index tracks the stock performance of publicly listed football clubs.
  • With the 2025-2026 season at an end, we have updated the analysis.
  • Again this season, publicly listed football clubs have underperformed the broader market index.
  • The Dutch saying "Ik ben geen dief van mijn eigen portemonnee" — “I ‘m not a thief of my own wallet” — is famously attributed to another football legend, Johan Cruyff. With that spirit in mind, it makes sense to avoid football stocks.

 

Pelé Index 2025-2026 Season Update: Another Red Card

  • To evaluate the stock performance of publicly listed football clubs, we developed the Pelé Index, named in honor of the legendary Brazilian footballer.
  • We simulated the historical performance of the Pelé Index by including all European football clubs with listed equity since 1998.
  • The index is constructed using standard methodology rules, as outlined in our initial report from 2024.
  • In the 2025–2026 season, the Pelé Index delivered a return of +0.4%, compared to a +27% return for global equities and +17% for European equity markets.
  • This means the Pelé Index underperformed the global equity index by -27% this season.
  • The poor returns in the 2025-2026 season do not stand on their own. Since the inception of the Pelé Index in 1998, the index has realized a total return of -11%. This stands in stark contrast to the +678% return of the global market over the same period.
  • To put that in footballing terms: while global equities were lifting the Champions League trophy, the Pelé Index was being knocked out in the qualifying rounds — by a team you've never heard of, on a muddy pitch, in the rain.

Note: Total returns in euro (unhedged). Source: Aegon AM, Bloomberg, Refinitiv. Data as per 06-2026.

 

 The "€10,000 Thought Experiment"

 Imagine it's 1998. You have €10,000 to invest. You love football, so you put it into a basket of publicly listed clubs — the Pelé Index. Twenty-eight years later, your €10,000 has shrunk to roughly €8,900. Your football-hating neighbor, who simply bought a global equity fund, now holds approximately €77,800 The difference? Nearly €69,000 — enough to buy a lifetime of season tickets, away trips, and questionable half-time fries. The lesson is clear: enjoy football from the stands, not from your brokerage account.

 

Full-Time Results

  • In the 2025-2026 season the Pelé Index returned +0.4% versus a return of +27% for global markets and +17% for European equity markets.

 

Season returns per club

Note: Total returns in euro (unhedged). The returns are measured over the period 31/5/2025 to 31/5/2026. Source: Aegon AM, Bloomberg. Data as per 06-2026.

 

  • FC Porto has delivered the strongest stock market performance with a remarkable return of +213%.
  • SS Lazio is the 2025-2026 season runner up with a return of +76%.
  • Manchester United FC, the largest constituent of the Pelé Index, saw its stock rise by +44%.
  • Juventus FC – the second largest constituent - posted negative returns. After ending only 6th in the Serie A, shares of La Vecchia Signora returned -35%, significantly underperforming the FTSE MIB. At -36%, this is the second worst performer in the index.

 

Juventus FC Shareprice

Note: Total returns in euro (unhedged). Source: Aegon AM, Bloomberg, Refinitiv. Data as per 05-2025.

 

The Juventus Cautionary Tale

Consider the fate of the Juventus shareholder. In 2018, when Cristiano Ronaldo arrived in Turin, shares of La Vecchia Signora briefly exceeded €10. The world's most marketable player, record shirt sales, Champions League ambitions — surely this was the moment. Fast forward to today: the share price hovers just below €2, and the stock returned -35% this season alone. It turns out that even signing one of the greatest players in history couldn't save your portfolio. The beautiful game gives to fans; it also takes from shareholders.

 

Composition of the Pelé Index

  • The Pelé Index currently comprises 18 constituents.
  • The index includes the winners of several national leagues: Galatasaray (Turkey), Aarhus GF (Denmark), FC Porto (Portugal), and Celtic FC (Scotland).
  • Manchester United FC is the largest constituent, with a market capitalization just over €3 billion, followed by Juventus FC and Fenerbahçe SK.

 

Pele Index Clubs Composition

Note: Weights as per 31/05/2026. Source: Aegon AM, Bloomberg, Refinitiv. Data as per 06-2026.

 

  • Notably, among Europe’s major football leagues, LaLiga currently has no representation in the Pelé Index. In total, 9 leagues are represented in the index.

 

Pele Index League Composition

Note: Weights as per 31/05/2026. Source: Aegon AM, Bloomberg, Refinitiv. Data as per 06-2026.

 

  • The combined market capitalization of the Pelé Index stands at €7.1 billion, a mere fraction of the global equity market, which totals approximately €100 trillion. This illustrates that football club equities are a real niche.

 

VAR Check: Does Winning Pay?

  • As presented in our earlier research, we see no strong relationship between match outcomes and share price returns.
  • Also, in the 2025-2026 season, we do not see evidence of such a relationship, based on match results in international competitions. Better than normal results in international matches did not correspond with higher stock returns. As such, our previous conclusion remains: winning games is good for fans, but not necessarily for shareholders.

 

The Fan vs. Shareholder Identity Crisis

Here lies a key paradox of football investing. When your club wins the league, you celebrate. But winning often means the club spent heavily on wages and transfers — money that could have been returned to shareholders. When your club sells its best player for a record fee, you despair as a fan. But as a shareholder? That might be the best news you've received all year. This fundamental conflict — fans want trophies, shareholders want returns — explains why better match results in international competitions did not correspond with better stock returns this season. In football stocks, your heart and your wallet are permanently at odds."

 

Conclusion: Final Whistle

  • As the 2025–2026 football season draws to a close, we reviewed the performance of the Pelé Index.
  • This season, the index underperformed the broader equity market by -27 percentage points.
  • We reaffirm last year’s conclusion: publicly traded football clubs have historically been challenging investments. There appears to be a fundamental misalignment between shareholder objectives (maximizing value) and football club priorities (winning matches).
  • The persistent underperformance of the Pelé Index highlights a structural disconnect between on-field success and shareholder value creation. As a result, listed football clubs (football stocks) remain unsuitable for most investment portfolios.
  • In the words of Johan Cruyff, “Ik ben geen dief van mijn eigen portemonnee” — “I’m not a thief of my own wallet.” It’s a sentiment worth remembering, especially when considering investments in football stocks.
  • The beautiful game deserves your heart. Your investment portfolio deserves your reason.
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Authors

Jordy Hermanns, CFA
Portfolio Manager
Jordy Hermanns, CFA, is a portfolio manager in the multi-asset group and serves as an investment strategist in the asset allocation team. Jordy is responsible for strategic and tactical asset allocation decisions on the asset allocation team.  
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Jacob Vijverberg, CFA
Asset Allocation Lead
Jacob Vijverberg, CFA, is the asset allocation lead for the multi-asset team, responsible for both strategic and tactical asset allocation, and co-portfolio manager of the Aegon Global Diversified Income Fund. He also provides macro-economic analysis to internal and external stakeholders.  
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