UN SDGs: How 2025 will shape the course until 2030
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Insights
Topic
Responsible Investing
Published
February 12, 2025
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5 mins
Author
Irina Kurochkina, CFA
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The start of 2025 presents a mixed outlook for global progress toward the UN SDGs. Headwinds to globalisation and to multilateral cooperation threaten to derail the achievement of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The success of individual countries in meeting sustainable objectives will largely depend on how global trends unfold over the coming year.

1. Geopolitics – negative impact

The change of the US administration marks another significant turn to less globalisation and more protectionism on a global scale. While the trend of shifting regional powers began earlier, the arrival of president Trump introduces a new wave of uncertainly for existing military and economic alliances. Ongoing conflicts around the world continue to hinder peaceful cooperation, causing significant humanitarian suffering and economic losses. The risk of the escalating trade war between the US and China, along with its spillover effects on other regions, could intensify hostile rhetoric and even increase the risk of physical confrontations. As more governments focus on reshaping global infrastructure and increase in defence spending, progress on the SDGs is likely to take a backseat, potentially stalling the global momentum in SDGs.


2. Economic growth – distinct impact per region

Sustainable economic growth is an important driver for achieving SDGs, as it fosters decent employment opportunities and promotes more equitable outcomes in society. While the OECD forecasts global GDP to grow 3.3% in 20251, increasing uncertainties could derail these projections. Income inequality remains a persistent global challenge, with minor improvements and even negative trends observed in some developed countries. The pandemic aftermath and a period of high inflation have put focus on low- and middle-income households, many of which require government support through, for example, reduced tax burdens. However, high public debt and a potential increase in unemployment could jeopardize the inclusive economic growth. On the other hand, an upside surprise in economic growth could improve sustainable outcomes across several of SDGs. At the same time, growth in an irresponsible manner in some regions could negatively impact sustainable goals, particularly in relation to environmental factors.


3. International organizations – positive impact

The role of multinational institutions, most notably the United Nations, is extremely important at a time when individual governments are increasingly turning inward and, in some cases, are unable or unwilling to engage in constructive dialogue with their neighbors or even historical allies. Despite the existing criticism towards some of the international organizations, they bring undeniable value from fostering global cooperation and advancing sustainable development. Many development banks, ranging from major institutions like the World Bank and European Investment Bank to smaller regional entities, place sustainable development at the core of their mandate. These institutions channel their budgets and expertise into supporting sustainable objectives, from improving access to essential services in low-income communities to providing funding to small business owners across the globe. Despite scepticism from some national authorities toward global institutions, the SDSN estimated that 90% of the world population live in countries with moderate to high support for UN-based Multilateralism2. This was assessed based on the range of indicators, including ratification of major UN treaties, voting patterns at the UN General Assembly, participation in conflicts, and contributions to the UN budget. Individual countries are not in a position to achieve peace or climate security on their own. International organisations play a vital role in uniting nations and helping the world to stay on track to achieve the sustainable goals.

The insights shared above are part of a broader analysis presented in our latest whitepaper:
"2025 Outlook on Sovereign Sustainability Journey." The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) play a crucial role in coordinating global efforts to address social and environmental challenges facing the world today. In combination with the economic and institutional goals, the framework encompasses the most vital issues that affect every country and individual. This year will be pivotal in determining the feasibility of achieving the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

1OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2024 Issue 2
2Sachs, J.D., Lafortune, G., Fuller, G. (2024). The SDGs and the UN Summit of the Future. Sustainable Development Report 2024

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Author

Irina Kurochkina, CFA
Portfolio Manager

Irina Kurochkina, CFA, is a portfolio manager in the fixed income, LDI and investment solutions team with a focus on sovereigns.

View profile
2025 Outlook on Sovereign Sustainability Journey

These shared insights are part of a broader analysis presented in our latest whitepaper: "2025 Outlook on Sovereign Sustainability Journey." 

Download whitepaper
2025 Outlook on Sovereign Sustainability Journey

These shared insights are part of a broader analysis presented in our latest whitepaper: "2025 Outlook on Sovereign Sustainability Journey." 

Download whitepaper
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