US CRE Market Insights Fall 2022

US CRE Market Insights Fall 2022

US commercial real estate (CRE) produced very favorable returns over the first half of 2022 despite high inflation and a weakening US economic growth environment. Second quarter NCREIF total returns (3.23%) were more moderate than the first quarter of the year but still very strong.1 With CRE investment performance historically lagging the macro-economy, investors are pondering the possibility that a cycle peak has been achieved. Recent economic indicators offer support for that conclusion but not without a hearty dose of uncertainty.

Determined to get the continuing problem of inflation under control, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) increased interest rates by 25 bps in March, 50 bps in May, 75 bps in June and another 75 bps in July. Additional rate increases are expected in 2022. We believe the future of the economy will largely depend on the Fed’s ability to curb inflation without causing a recession. 


1National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries. June 30, 2022

Important disclosures


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More about the authors

Martha Peyton, Ph.D. CRE Managing Director and Global Head Real Assets Research

Martha Peyton, Ph.D. CRE, is managing director and global head real assets research primarily responsible for the development and application of research to real asset strategies. 

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